Why one strategist is actually encouraged by a spike in new U.S. coronavirus cases

Published: June 27, 2020 at 7:51 a.m. ET – for Market Watch

By Steve Goldstein

My cmnt: The Covid-19 reaction has always been illogical. Shutting down America (and the rest of the world) was the biggest man-made disaster since WWII. The virus was always affecting mostly the very elderly and already sick. These people could have and should have been quarantined (which that idiot governor of NY Cuomo did NOT do) and the rest of the population left alone. Letting the herd immunity develop as we do every year with virulent flu was and remains the best and only policy. The Leftist media trumpeting the rise in cases (which is a meaningless statistic) as testing increases is like shouting it is getting lighter as the sun comes up. What matters is the hospitalization and death rate – which as noted is dropping.

My cmnt 2: Another analogy to the obvious increase in (discovered) cases of Covid-19 as testing increases is this: If we started a massive increase in IQ testing we would find a corresponding increase in the number of morons found. Does that mean that morons are being spread like the virus? NO. It means they (and the viral infection) were already there, pretty much functioning as the minor irritants they are, and nothing has changed for either better or worse. But since obviously intelligent liberals cannot seem to grasp this simple point (or don’t want to) that would seem to indicate that being a moron is often intentional.

Beachgoers enjoy the sunshine as they sunbathe and play in the sea on Bournemouth beach in southern England on June 25, 2020.
Getty Images

It is just the nature of the market that the coronavirus pandemic has forced every fund manager and analyst to become an amateur epidemiologist.

So here are some of the COVID-19 thoughts of Christopher Wood, global head of equity strategy at Jefferies. He is actually encouraged by the latest week of coronavirus data that has seen cases spike outside of the New York metropolitan area.

worldometer source

He notes, for example, the median age of new positive cases in Florida has declined from 50 in April to 33 in recent days, and that, crucially, deaths are declining even as new cases pile up. Besides the point that new cases are being detected more because testing has increased, and that younger and healthier people are getting the disease, Wood raises the possibility that, like severe acute respiratory syndrome, COVID-19 could simply burn itself out as it mutates into a less virulent form over time.

“If such is indeed the case, it is extremely bullish. Investors should certainly keep an open mind on such a possibility,” Wood says. More good news on the coronavirus front comes from Western Europe, as new cases and deaths, outside of the U.K., are roughly 90% lower eight weeks into reopening.

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